PMI strong expansion in the first quarter, the economy is stable to the good trend

Addtime:[2022-7-26]

As a leading indicator of the economy, PMI continued strong expansion in the first quarter, in March manufacturing PMI climbed to nearly five years high, while the non manufacturing PMI also rose to nearly three years high. Analysts believe that the first quarter economic stabilization and recovery is a foregone conclusion, is expected to steady economic trend for the better, the two quarter will continue.
China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the National Bureau of statistics released data yesterday, in March China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. This is the index for 8 consecutive months at 50% above the level. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, said: "following February, the PMI index continued to pick up slightly in March, indicating that China's economy has stabilized and the trend has been initially established."."
This year, PMI continued to rise, the PMI index in the first quarter average 51.6%, higher than the same period last year 2 percentage points or more, the main sub indexes are now marked recovery.
China Logistics Information Center Chen Zhongtao analysis, this shows that the market demand improved, production recovery, the whole enterprise to improve, industry generally picked up a quarter of the economy actively change obviously, economic growth has picked up momentum, is expected to reach about 6.8%, but the total to still remained steady in the interval of 6.5% to 7% of the operation.
Earlier this year, the first two months of this year, the main macroeconomic data are expected to rise more than expected, so institutions have raised economic growth in the first quarter. CITIC Securities, Bank of communications and so on will be the first quarter GDP growth forecast increased from 6.7% to 6.8%. CICC predicts that the growth rate of GDP in the first quarter is likely to accelerate to 6.9% from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.
In March, the rise in PMI data further confirms the steady trend of the economy. PMI rebounded with the manufacturing industry in March, non manufacturing PMI also rose 0.9 percentage points to 55.1% last month, a record high of nearly three years, indicating that the pace of expansion of non manufacturing industry to further accelerate.
Chinese Federation of logistics and purchasing, vice president Cai Jin believes that the March non manufacturing market showed a steady trend trend rise, input price index for two consecutive months of decline, the employment index remained stable at more than 49%, compared with the same period last year continued to rise, the economy tends to improve quality.
It is worth noting that, from the manufacturing sector PMI subdivision index can also be seen that the pace of economic restructuring accelerated.
Statistics show that in the first quarter, the average value of high-tech industry, equipment manufacturing PMI index was 52.7% and 54.8%, higher than the same period last year about 4 percentage points.
"This shows that the industrial restructuring and upgrading, accelerate the development of innovation, the economy steady progress, steady to good posture to further strengthen." Chen Zhongtao says.
In Chen Zhongtao view, the current favorable factors in the economy more, the external environment is relatively good, speed up the domestic supply side reforms, financial supervision, virtual economy cooling, continuously improve the environment for economic development entities. Economic stability is expected to rise, steady to the good trend, the two quarter will continue.
In addition, the price index in the manufacturing PMI index has declined, indicating that inflation pressure is further eased. Data show that in March, raw material purchase price index fell by 4.9 percentage points to 59.3%, the first time in 6 months fell to less than 60%. As the purchasing price index for raw materials has fallen for 3 consecutive months, the surge in the price index for industrial producers may be eased.
Bank financial research center senior researcher Liu Xuezhi said that in March the PPI rally is expected to slow down, year-on-year growth may be running at a high level for some time, the future fluctuations in the state has declined.